Skip to main content
Author(s):
William Matt Jolly, Patrick H. Freeborn, Larry S. Bradshaw, Jon Wallace, Stuart Brittain
Year Published:

Cataloging Information

Topic(s):
Fire Behavior
Simulation Modeling
Fire Danger Rating
Weather

NRFSN number: 27090
Record updated:

The US National Fire Danger Rating System (USNFDRS) supports wildfire management decisions nationwide, but it has not been updated since 1988. Here we implement new fuel moisture models, and we simplify the fuel models while maintaining the overall USNFDRS structure. Modeled and measured live fuel moisture content values were highly correlated (𝑟2 = 0.629 with defaults and 𝑟2 = 0.693 when species and location optimized). We also consolidated fuel models to five fuel types that eliminated significant index cross-correlation. Index seasonality compared between old (V2) and new USNFDRS models (v4) across six US National Forests was very similar (𝜌 = 0.97). V4 was as good or better than V2 at predicting fire days in 92% of the cases tested and V4 effectively predicted wildfire days and large fire ignition days (AUCs 0.647 to 0.915). USNFDRS V4 can adequately depict spatial and temporal wildland fire potential and it can be adapted for worldwide use.

Citation

Jolly, W. Matt; Freeborn, Patrick H.; Bradshaw, Larry S.; Wallace, Jon; Brittain, Stuart. 2024. Modernizing the US National Fire Danger Rating System (version 4): Simplified fuel models and improved live and dead fuel moisture calculations. Environmental Modelling and Software. 181: 106181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106181

Access this Document

Treesearch

publication access with no paywall

Check to see if this document is available for free in the USDA Forest Service Treesearch collection of publications. The collection includes peer reviewed publications in scientific journals, books, conference proceedings, and reports produced by Forest Service employees, as well as science synthesis publications and other products from Forest Service Research Stations.