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Despite a growing need to expand the pace and scale of prescribed burning to address the national fire deficit, there is a lack of data-driven methods to incorporate fire danger information into prescribed fire planning. To address this gap, we combined nearly two decades of prescribed fire and wildfire records with spatial fire danger data across Montana and Idaho to characterize when and where each fire type has occurred. We identified objective thresholds from a normalized fire danger index, the Energy Release Component (ERC), by treating pile burns, broadcast burns, and wildfires as ordinal classes along an ERC continuum. We generated distributions of optimal thresholds to create “overlap zones” that quantify uncertainty between fire types. These methods were used to build a simple planning guide, ClassiFiRxe, that can help reveal fire class seasonality, estimate prescribed burn windows at local scales, and map categories across large landscapes. ClassiFiRxe can be developed wherever sufficient fire weather and occurrence data exist. This data-driven framework provides a repeatable, interpretable and robust tool to support prescribed fire planning, helping restore fire to landscapes and reduce the fire deficit.

This event is part of a series:

Fire Lab Seminar Series

The Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory has been hosting an annual seminar series since 1998. Hour-long seminars are presented by Fire Lab employees and other researchers from throughout the world. Seminars cover current research and management about the natural world from a broad range of disciplines, but most seminars usually have a wildland fire theme. The Fire Lab Seminar Series provides a platform for researchers and managers to present their work in an environment that encourages critical thought, the free exchange of ideas, and knowledge discovery. For more information, visit the Fire Lab Seminar Series page.

Event Details

Mar 12 2026, 11am - 12pm Mountain Time

Virtual Event
Presenter(s): William Matt Jolly, Benjamin Sweeney
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